INFINITRADE / RESEARCH

Anthropic IPO Allocation Lab

Explore 90 days of shares, cash-secured puts, and cash.

CONDITIONAL SCENARIOS · NO LIVE ORDERS

Historical stock paths. Synthetic option premiums. The $100 share price and 80% implied volatility are illustrative inputs, not Anthropic quotes. Results are conditional on the selected IPO sample and assumptions.

Ten-year tech IPO study

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How missing histories could change these results

Annual composition and November comparison

Every identified November tech IPO

IPO census and missing price histories

IPOs versus the market · first 90 days

Each IPO starts at its first closing price. SPY represents the broad U.S. equity market; QQQ represents the Nasdaq-100. Comparisons use the same calendar dates and exclude dividends.

Market comparison cohort

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Individual IPO market comparisons

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IPOs versus the market · 90 days, 6 months and 12 months

Compare price returns from the same first closing price through 90 days, six calendar months and twelve calendar months. SPY and QQQ use the same paired trading dates. Returns exclude dividends. The 90-day allocation model and its assumptions remain unchanged.

Longer-term comparison cohort

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Compare the same issuers at every horizon

Individual IPO returns, paired dates and missing observations

Ledger horizon

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Your research assumptions

Historical comparison cohort Capital budget ($) Illustrative share price ($) Maximum ownership (% of budget) Historical tail-loss limit (% of budget) Assumed implied volatility (%) Cash yield (% annual) Option entry (calendar day) Option tenor (calendar days) Stock path movement multiplier Premium received (% of theoretical) Include software / AI comparables First-ITM early-assignment sensitivity

One put tranche. Full gross cash collateral. Assigned shares held to day 90. No rolling or premium-funded sizing.

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CONSTRAINED GRID OPTIMUM · IN SAMPLE

Allocation

Portfolio value through day 90

One line per historical IPO path

Same capital, different approaches

Comparators may breach your selected limits; eligibility is shown explicitly. Returns include residual cash and unrealized losses.

Strategy	Mean return	Historical loss frequency	Tail loss	Max drawdown	Constraints

Downside stress

Hypothetical shocks; no probabilities assigned.

Out-of-sample checks

Refit without the held-out IPO. These diagnostics cannot establish reliable predictive performance with such a small sample.

Allocation sensitivity

Assumption	Shares	Put contracts	Mean return	Tail loss

Data coverage & sources

IPO / cohort	First trade	Base proceeds	Observations	90-day first-close return	From offer	From opening trade	Excess vs QQQ	Realized vol (descriptive)	Source

Model limitations and data exclusions

Explore and download the research

Ten-year tech IPO study

IPOs versus the market · first 90 days

IPOs versus the market · 90 days, 6 months and 12 months

Allocation

Portfolio value through day 90

Same capital, different approaches

Downside stress

Out-of-sample checks

Allocation sensitivity

Data coverage & sources